2024 is almost over, and it has been a relatively good year for the ecosystem. But what lies ahead for the crypto market in 2025?
This is a pressing question that investors might have. In this analysis, BeInCrypto discusses insights from renowned analysts about the year ahead. While some predict the bull market will gain momentum, others urge caution. Here’s a breakdown of the top forecasts and key signals from critical indicators.
Analyst Expection Bitcoin Rally to Persist, but First…
For Benjamin Cowen, crypto analyst and founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, Bitcoin (BTC), specifically, could start 2025 with a correction. Cowen suggests this could happen because, in January, following previous halving years, Bitcoin showed similar behavior. He advises market participants to prepare mentally for a potential pullback.
“In the last 2 cycles, BTC got a correction in January of the post-halving year. Probably worthwhile to be mentally prepared for that outcome. So would correspond to January 2025.” Cowen wrote on X.
This thesis, however, is contrary to several opinions predicting that the Bitcoin price could rally toward $120,000 in the first month. Currently, BTC trades at $97,970. This year, the cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high of $108,268, representing a 112% year-to-date (YTD) increase.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytic platform CryptoQuant, opined that the Bitcoin bull market could last until mid-2025. Young Ju made this assertion in July, noting that BTC might attract new capital to extend the bullish crypto market in 2025 to that period.
Bitcoin Realized Price for Accumulation Addresses. Source: CryptoQuant
However, in November. Young Ju changed his sentiment. According to him, if Bitcoin price ends 2024 on a strong note, it could set the stage for a 2025 bear market.
“I expected corrections as BTC futures market indicators overheated, but we’re entering price discovery, and the market is heating up even more. If correction and consolidation occur, the bull run may extend; however, a strong year-end rally could set up 2025 for a bear market.” Young Ju said.
Recently, Axel Adler shared his perspective on the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT), which measures the distance between the current Bitcoin price and its 4-year moving average.
Typically, Bitcoin reaches the cycle top when the BPT reading falls between 6 and 8. On December 7, Adler noted that the indicator was at 3.2. However, he mentioned that if the reading rises to 8, it could push Bitcoin’s price to $178,000.
Bitcoin Price Temperature. Source: CryptoQuant
“At a BPT level of 8, the price could reach $178K per BTC. Essentially, this serves as a target for 2025, which could materialize if the current demand for coins on the spot market persists.” Alder mentioned.
Altcoins Not Left Out: Solana vs Ethereum Rivalry to Continue
However, Bitcoin is only one part of the crypto market. Therefore, it is important to look at other assets and the potential macroeconomic view that could happen for crypto in 2025. At the same time, it is important to note that besides Bitcoin, only a few altcoins from the 2021 bull market were able to reach new highs.
Still, there were some positive signs. For example, BNB and Solana (SOL) climbed to new peaks, while XRP’s price showed strong performance during this last quarter. Some relatively new altcoins, such as Sui (SUI), Mantra (OM), and Bitget Token (BGB), also had impressive performances.
This accolade would, however, be incomplete without mentioning meme coins, which had a strong hold on the market during this cycle. Due to this, experts forecast that meme coins, AI coins, and Real World Assets (RWA) tokens might continue to perform well in 2025.
Ethereum (ETH) has, however, been a little disappointing. As a result, digital asset management firm 21Shares opined that Solana might keep eating into Ethereum’s market share in 2025.
In its report, 21Shares attributed this forecast to low fees provided on the Solana blockchain and the integration of the adoption of PayPal USD (PYUSD) stablecoin. Moreover, it emphasized that this does not imply that SOL would flip ETH’s market cap.
“While we don’t anticipate a full “flippening,” Solana is primed to outperform and capture more market share from Ethereum through improved UX and infrastructure.” The report stated.
Despite that, Ethereum’s Total Value Locked (TVL) remains higher than that of Solana. As of this writing, Solana’s TVL is $8.60 billion, while Ethereum’s is $70.10 billion.
Solana vs Ethereum TVL. Source: Artemis
Should the prediction come to pass, the TVL difference might tighten. Regarding the Solana ETF application, 21Shares noted that the approval might come within the first three quarters, but it may come as 2025 closes or the beginning of the following year.
“Solana’s expanding role in TradFi is expected to set the stage for traditional financial products such as Solana futures on the CME or U.S.-domiciled Solana ETFs. While ETF approval may not happen in 2025, the likelihood is expected to increase as we approach the end of the year and into the first half of 2026.” 21Shares added.
The Trump Effect and What Adoption May Look Like
From a macroeconomic perspective, the asset manager anticipates that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs will spur further institutional adoption globally. This sentiment may be linked to Donald Trump’s election as US president.
During his campaign, Trump consistently promised his administration would provide clearer regulations for the crypto sector. His inauguration is scheduled for January 2025, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s resignation could allow the market to experience more freedom.
Outside of the US, South Korea is considering lifting the ban on crypto ETFs. If achieved, this might drive trading volume to an extremely high value in the Asian region. The UK is also not left out, with speculation brewing that the country could grant retail investors access to crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs).
Based on the above, it appears that the crypto market in 2025 could offer more positive outcomes than what has happened this year. It is also possible that another country might adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, following in El Salvador’s footsteps.
As of this writing, the countries with the potential to achieve that are the US and Javier Milei-led Argentina. If that happens, then the Bitcoin price is likely to hit new highs, and the total market cap could surge above $5 trillion.
For altcoins, this situation still looks dicey. However, if a high level of capital flows into these assets, they might also seem new high. At the same time, investors might need to watch out. Should the market experience crashes of crypto platforms like in 2025, this prediction might be invalidated, and the market could fall into a bear phase.